Fewer of a church's newcomers were previously unchurched
Average share of a church's new attendees over the prior two years who had not been attending anywhere.
Featured in: Field notes: the front door is quieter
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| Value (%) | |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 27% |
| 2025 | 20% |
Lifeway Research's latest pastor survey reports that 54% of U.S. Protestant pastors say average worship attendance has grown since 2023 — but fewer of them are seeing new, previously-unchurched people walk through the door for the first time.
That distinction matters for how a church should read its own attendance number. Growth from existing-Christian mobility (people switching churches) and growth from new engagement are different problems with different next steps, and a single attendance figure can't tell them apart.
We're watching whether this shows up in MSTRD's own Mission and Direction scores for growing churches — the working hypothesis is that mobility-driven growth masks a mission-clarity problem for longer than genuine outreach growth does, because the numbers look healthy while the underlying signal doesn't.
What we're reading
Pastors Report Growing Attendance, but Fewer Unchurched Newcomers — Lifeway ResearchPublic blog. Cite "Lifeway Research" with a link; syndicated data tables may require permission.